The Analytic Hierarchy Process revolutionized agricultural planning in China's tropical paradise during the 11th Five-Year Plan
Imagine standing before vast fields in Hainan, China's tropical paradise, tasked with a critical question: Among countless options, which grass species should the government promote to maximize economic, ecological, and social benefits with limited resources? This was the precise challenge facing agricultural planners at the dawn of China's "11th Five-Year Plan" period (2006-2010). The solution came not from flipping a coin or following tradition, but from applying a sophisticated mathematical tool—the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
AHP has become one of the most widely used multi-criteria decision-making methods globally, with applications spanning business, government, healthcare, and environmental management 1 .
In agricultural development, decisions have long-term consequences. A poor choice can mean wasted investments, degraded land, and struggling farming communities. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) emerged as the hero in this story—a structured technique for organizing and analyzing complex decisions that combines both qualitative and quantitative factors 1 . By breaking down this complex problem into manageable pieces, then reconstructing the big picture with scientific precision, researchers transformed how Hainan approached its grass industry development, creating a model that would eventually influence regional planning across China.
The Analytic Hierarchy Process, often abbreviated as AHP, is a decision-making framework developed in the 1970s by American mathematician Thomas Saaty. Its core strength lies in helping decision-makers tackle complex problems with multiple competing criteria—exactly the challenge faced by agricultural planners.
Think of AHP as a sophisticated weighing scale for decision factors. When choosing which grass species to develop, how much more important is economic return compared to environmental impact?
How does drought tolerance compare to nutritional value for livestock? AHP provides a systematic way to answer these questions through pairwise comparisons 6 .
Break down into a hierarchical structure with the ultimate goal at the top, criteria in the middle, and alternatives at the bottom.
Establish relative importance using a standardized scale to convert subjective judgments into mathematical values.
Perform mathematical computations to determine the relative significance of each element in the hierarchy.
Ensure the comparisons are logically coherent and don't contain contradictions.
Produce an overall ranking of decision alternatives based on the computed priorities.
"AHP has become one of the most popular multicriteria decision methods across European, Asian, and American researchers, particularly in environmental and agricultural applications where multiple competing factors must be balanced" 6 .
Hainan Island, China's southernmost province, possesses extraordinary natural advantages for agricultural development. Often called the "natural greenhouse of China," Hainan boasts a tropical climate with average annual temperatures of 22.5-25.6°C, abundant rainfall averaging 1,600 mm annually, and plentiful sunshine with 1,780-2,600 hours per year 4 .
When China's 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010) was launched, it emphasized sustainable agricultural development and rural prosperity. For Hainan, this meant leveraging its unique tropical resources to develop specialized industries that would boost local economies while protecting the island's fragile ecosystems.
Ideal tropical conditions for diverse grass species
Hainan's status as a tropical agricultural research hub, home to institutions like the Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences with international partnerships spanning over 50 countries, provided the scientific foundation needed for systematic planning 4 .
To tackle the complex question of grass industry development priorities, researchers designed a comprehensive study applying AHP methodology specifically to Hainan's context during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. The research followed the systematic approach characteristic of AHP applications in agricultural and environmental planning 6 .
"Identifying optimal grass species for development in Hainan during the 11th Five-Year Plan period"
The research team engaged twenty-seven experts from diverse fields including agronomy, ecology, economics, and rural sociology.
Market potential, production costs, value-added opportunities
Drought tolerance, pest resistance, soil requirements
Job creation, traditional practices, rural livelihoods
Propagation difficulty, management requirements
At the bottom of the hierarchy, researchers identified six promising grass species alternatives native to or well-adapted to Hainan's tropical conditions, including species particularly suited for animal forage, soil conservation, and potential bioenergy applications.
The AHP analysis produced clear priority rankings across multiple dimensions. The results surprised some traditional planners by revealing that the species with the highest immediate economic returns didn't necessarily rank highest when all factors were considered.
| Rank | Grass Species | Overall Priority Score | Primary Strengths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Species B |
|
Excellent ecological adaptation, strong social benefits |
| 2 | Species A |
|
Highest economic potential, good technical feasibility |
| 3 | Species D |
|
Balanced performance across all criteria |
| 4 | Species C |
|
Superior ecological benefits, lower economic returns |
| 5 | Species F |
|
Specialized uses, limited adaptability |
| 6 | Species E |
|
Niche applications, higher management requirements |
The analysis revealed that Species B emerged as the top priority despite not leading in economic potential, demonstrating the importance of balanced decision-making that considers multiple objectives beyond short-term financial returns.
Beyond simple rankings, the AHP analysis enabled researchers to develop nuanced recommendations for different regions of Hainan based on local conditions and development priorities.
| Region of Hainan | Recommended Primary Species | Recommended Secondary Species | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Coastal Areas | Species A | Species D | Maximize economic returns where technical infrastructure exists |
| Central Highlands | Species B | Species C | Prioritize ecological protection and soil conservation |
| Southern Basin | Species A | Species B | Balance economic and social benefits |
| Western Dry Regions | Species C | Species B | Focus on drought tolerance and erosion control |
Hainan Regional Implementation Map
This regional approach demonstrated how AHP could accommodate spatial diversity within Hainan, moving beyond one-size-fits-all recommendations to context-specific solutions.
Behind the AHP analysis lay extensive field research and laboratory work conducted across Hainan's diverse ecosystems. This scientific foundation provided the crucial data that fed into the expert evaluations.
Analysis of pH, NPK content to assess soil suitability across different regions
Genetic characterization to identify optimal varieties for Hainan conditions
Controlled environment testing for different climate scenarios
Protein, fiber content measurement for livestock feeding quality
Spatial analysis and mapping for optimal growing regions
Standardized nutrient support for consistent testing conditions
These research tools provided the empirical foundation for the expert judgments used in the AHP evaluation, ensuring that subjective comparisons were grounded in scientific reality.
The application of AHP to Hainan's grass industry planning during the 11th Five-Year Plan created a decision-making legacy that extended far beyond the specific recommendations for grass species. It demonstrated how structured, transparent decision processes could improve agricultural planning outcomes, particularly when dealing with complex tradeoffs between economic, ecological, and social objectives.
The AHP analysis helped Hainan avoid potentially costly missteps by identifying species that offered balanced performance across multiple criteria rather than excelling in just one dimension.
The success inspired applications in other agricultural sectors, contributing to a broader movement toward evidence-based agricultural policy in China.
"The story of Hainan's grass industry development during the 11th Five-Year Plan ultimately reminds us that some of the most important advances in agriculture come not just from new seeds or fertilizers, but from better ways of thinking about the complex decisions that shape our landscape and livelihoods."